Live Long and Prosper

Otto Von Bismarck is famous for saying: "People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war, or before an election". Hunting season is upon us, we're in the midst of war with Iran, and the midterm elections are less than two weeks away. As Fleetwood Mac used to sing: Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies. I don't know who to believe anymore.

To get away from all the noise I've spent the past two months immersed in finance and technology books. Books about boom and bust cycles of yesteryear are a focal point since there's great debate about the current technology revolution as to how much further we have to go. 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin is excellent as well as 1873 by Liaqat Ahamed. Most people are familiar with the crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression. The global financial meltdown of 1873, not so much. But just like the Dot Com implosion of 1999-2000 and the Great Recession of 2007-2008, it was the big banks and Wall Street that caused the financial meltdowns by too much speculation, margin trading and greed. 

As an offshoot of my reading, I've been creating a watchlist of equities that I would like to purchase if they get down to my price range. They're primarily Artificial Intelligence stocks, but everything is AI now, at least with Corporate America. Artificial Intelligence permeates the national news. It's coming to take all of our jobs or is coming to wipe out humanity if you believe the hype. The question remains, what type of future do you believe in? The James Cameron version (he wrote and directed The Terminator), or the Gene Roddenberry interpretation (Roddenberry created Star Trek). I tend to be an optimist, so I'm going with Starfleet Command. 

It seems as if the more I read, the less I know. This is especially true with technology. It's evolving at warp speed and it's tough to keep up. As a society, we are captives of the Digerati. One thing that has confused me but was clarified recently is the concept of tokenization, a term that is frequently bandied about. The problem that I had with technology pundits is that they don't specify which tokenization that they're referring to. There's tokenization in AI, and there is tokenization in cryptocurrency. It's like saying Portland but not specifying if it's in Oregon or Maine. Two different cities and two different technology concepts with very little overlap.

Tokenization in AI deals with Large Language Models, how text strings are diced up and put back together like jigsaw puzzles to ensure the most efficient outcome of your prompt. The large chatbots such as Anthropic's Claude, or OpenAI's ChatGPT get charged by token usage. With crypto, tokenization is the digitization of analog assets such as equities, bonds, real estate contracts in order to flow through the blockchain. I'm a big believer in crypto tokenization and that it's the next phase of the plumbing that makes our financial systems operate in a timely manner. In a 24/7 marketplace, blockchain and tokenization is not only the future, but it's the present. It's going mainstream and I've bet on it with investments in Solana and Chainlink.

Two other concepts that were defined in my most recent readings are subsets of Artificial Intelligence: Agentic AI and Artificial General Intelligence. They sound about the same but they aren't. Agentic AI is here and it's growing, and it's putting people out of work. What used to take hours to accomplish manually, takes a matter of seconds. It is and will put white collar workers on the unemployment line. The blacksmiths and wainwrights in the horse and buggy era had to learn to pump gas and fix carburetors with the introduction of the automobile. This is a similar transition. 

When you do a prompt in pedestrian AI, it's reactive. It searches for something based on your query, a set of instructions if you will. With Agentic AI, it's proactive. You state a task and it will reason and plan from inputs of multiple data sources, not just a Large Language Model. This is in real time. For instance, if you want to book a flight, you will prompt the day, price range, and destination. The Agentic AI agent will scour all available data sources available and book your flight. Letting an AI Agent have your credit card number is a dangerous proposition in my opinion. Not enough guardrails in a nascent technology so buyer beware. 

Artificial General Intelligence is a technology for the future. To quote Google, "a hypothetical form of AI that matches or surpasses human capabilities across all cognitive tasks.". Ray Kurzweil has been writing for years about "The Singularity", where machines become humanlike. Sentient Computing is the technical term, where computers have subjective experiences, self-awareness and personal feelings. In The Terminator, a search and destroy cyborg, the T-800 from Cyberdyne Systems, time travels to Earth to complete an assassination. Not only is this the concept of Artificial General Intelligence, but the negative aspects of it, too. 

Elon Musk has transformed Tesla into a robotics company and this is what he envisions in the not too distant future, a company that produces human-like robots. Musk has already manufactured a flying car in the Tesla Roadster, right out of the 1960's era cartoon The Jetsons, or a more modern example is 1997's movie The Fifth Element. He's a brilliant engineer, but overshoots his projections which makes both his companies Tesla and SpaceX extremely expensive to invest in on a valuation basis. They're cult stocks. Musk is a cult figure. They go well together. There's speculation that he's going to merge the two companies which would be a runway to creating Skynet if you're familiar with The Terminator franchise. He'd have the androids and the neural networks. It's a dangerous combination if handled incorrectly. 

You can be a Luddite and do all the protesting you want to do, but you're not going to change anything. You can't fight the future, the future always wins. To use a cliché, you can't put the genie back in the bottle. We're in a race with China for AI dominance and if I'm going to get killed by a rogue cyborg, I'd rather it be American made than manufactured in China. 

ChainLink: The Amazon Web Services Collaboration Could Accelerate Growth

In the two decades that I've been writing about stocks and finance, the main thing that I've learned is that readers just want a hot stock tip. I've also learned that I'm not qualified for dishing out short-term price targets. That's because they don't work for me, or most prognosticators. The only sources that are backed up by successful outcomes in the momentum tranche of investing are Seeking Alpha's Quant Ratings and Investor's Business Daily's CANSLIM method. Both have terrific track records. The caveat with both of these techniques is that you must be tethered to your smartphone or computer to be able to fully capitalize on their investing suggestions. Although the majority of people are online 24/7 these days and may be able to take advantage of these services, I've been schooled in value investing and tend to take a less active approach to my finances.

A few months ago I wrote about cryptocurrency ChainLink (LINK-USD) and how I believed that the depressed price was great for accumulation. Here's a link to that article which covers a lot of background information about the company and crypto in general. The price has hovered around $9 for almost three months and I've been adding to my position in the Grayscale ChainLink Trust ETF (GLNK), a spot price ETF, to dollar cost average down. It was selling for $30 six months ago.

I'm slightly underwater on the investment and lag the S&P 500, but believe that if I'm patient, I'll reap the rewards. At the worst, I'll double my investment in four years which will be better than an investment in the S&P 500 based on historic trends. If the development of WEB 3.0  continues, and the tokenization of everything financial accelerates, then I've got a potential ten bagger on my hands. With the advent of social media forums such as Stocktwits and Reddit's Wall Street Bets (RDDT), ChainLink could even become a meme crypto. It happened five years ago, and lightning could strike once more.

In the altcoin bull market five years ago, it was all crypto hype. Now we're talking about real world use cases. Two weeks ago, Amazon Web Services "AWS" (AMZN) adopted ChainLink for their cloud service. Although many small and bootstrap organizations utilize AWS, it's the corporate behemoths that are the big game for ChainLink. The partnership legitimizes DeFi applications much the same way that AOL's purchase of Time Warner in the 1990s solidified the Internet era. It's not an apples to apples comparison, but you get the drift. 

Industry experts believe that other hyperscalers such as Google Cloud (GOOG) and Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) will offer similar decentralized data solutions. This could propel market wide adoption of Decentralized Finance. It's only good news for ChainLink. ChainLink is secure. AWS is secure. It's a nice combination. It's also primarily what the Fortune 500 looks for when deciding on a software package. I am not alone in my belief in this, but we are in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The current era amalgamates  A.I., robotics and Web 3.0 which is the tokenization of all things analog to digital. ChainLink is the bridge that converts off-chain assets into digital assets. Stocks, bonds, options and real estate are all becoming tokenized at an accelerating rate. 

The graph above (provided by Wiseway Tec), gives you a ballpark figure of the type of growth we are dealing with. If you search for tokenization of real world assets, the Internet is rife with charts and graphs all coming to the same conclusions - this is where the action is going to be for growth investors. Right now, we have a unique opportunity to buy ChainLink as a token or as a spot-price ETF as a value investment. Value investments tend to sit, then run. Currently, ChainLink is in neutral. I'm taking a page from the Warren Buffett playbook and accumulating while the price is down. It's a Mr. Market situation if you follow the teachings of Benjamin Graham. Prices are low right now so Mr. Market is in a bad mood and gives a great price to purchase the shares. I don't think it will take more than a year for ChainLink to get in gear. It's not if, it's when. I'm prepared to wait. 

Under the Bridge

There's an old Rodney Dangerfield routine that goes something like this:  "He worked for the bank for 30 years, Vice President - very adjusted man...church goer, never smokes, drinks or, gambles. Then you read about these guys. One day they pick up an axe, and wipe out the whole family. The next day the cops come around, 'What happened here? What kinda man was he?' 'He was a quiet man, a very quiet man'."

Because of the political dichotomy in the country, the majority of Americans stay silent, yet boil under the surface, ready to explode. We're in an environment where the preponderance of people can't say anything anymore without getting shouted down by the fringe minorities of both sides. The politically correct Left will shut you down if you aren't woke enough. The MAGA (Make America Great Again) Right acts like guests on the defunct Jerry Springer Show. Although many members of the GOP aren't "deplorables" as Hillary Clinton referred to them, some MAGA are. The same could be said about ANTIFA. Both sides are confrontational with no room for discourse, in person or online. It also seems as if everyone talks relentlessly about politics these days which is much different than thirty years ago. It puts me on the defensive. 

If somebody tells me that they're a Democrat, I wonder if they vote for candidates that represent the Squad's values. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the shining light of the movement. She doesn't characterize my values nor does Bernie Sanders, although they have some good ideas such as Universal Health Care and make the billionaires pay their fair share of taxes. They are Socialists. It says so on Bernie's party affiliation. Conversely, if somebody tells me that they're a member of the GOP, I wonder if they're RINOs (Republican In Name Only), or, MAGA. Either or, it doesn't make me happy that out of over 300 million people, we can't get better candidates running for higher office. Like the presidency. 

I hated the 1990s. I was in my thirties for most of it, and as the country went through radical transformation culturally, so did I personally. As the dominance of three media networks with all of their influence on society eroded into the niche broadcasting environment we have today, I too was morphing from early adulthood to something that was supposed to be more mature. At almost 70, except for the aches and pains, I still feel like I'm in my teens mentally. But in my thirties, I was tired of myself, especially my career as a scribe, and needed a break. If you didn't live through the 1990s, or want a retrospective of it, look no further than Chuck Klosterman's The Nineties. It's an outstanding book. 

Bill Clinton was the 42nd President from 1993-2001. Except for a few peccadillos, I thought he was an excellent Commander in Chief. Especially the way in which he balanced the budget. He was a fiscal conservative while ushering in a centrist political agenda. In the early part of the decade, MTV in the classic music video format was dying. So was I from self-inflicted psychological and financial wounds. My friends were moving on and I wasn't because of poor choices. What always kept me going was listening to music. A year before Bill and Hillary moved into The White House,  Red Hot Chili Peppers released their fifth studio album, Blood Sugar Sex Magik. I had the Compact Disk and used to listen to it while on the Stairmaster.

One track on the album is "Under the Bridge", written by frontman Anthony Kiedis. It's a song about loneliness, homelessness and drug abuse. Despite its dour subject matter, it's a great song. Kiedis has been significantly influenced by writer Charles Bukowski, and I don't know this for a fact, but he may have created the song title from a Bukowski line from his novel Women: "Many a good man has been put under the bridge by a woman." It sounds like something "Slick Willie" should have written. Although I liked President Obama, I preferred the leadership of Clinton. I didn't mind Bush the Elder either, but never voted for him. I've never voted for a Republican, and the way things are going, I doubt I ever will. 

Walk on the Wild Side

I still use AOL as my primary email provider. I'm not trying to be retro cool. It's the same address I've had for over thirty years and it's good enough for me. I have a Gmail account for professional purposes, but seldom use it. There's not a lot of interest in a writer almost 70 years old. When I access my email on my Chromebook, I go to the AOL homepage and the first thing I usually do is check out the rotating slide show that highlights the important news of the day. Recently, the big celebrity story was about Cardi B deciding not to have her butt implants removed. She took Sir Mix-A-Lot's "Baby Got Back" to the next level. 

Cardi B is one of the top performers in the music industry and has been so for almost a decade. You may be familiar with her from her duet "W.A.P." (Wet Ass Pussy) with Megan Thee Stallion. I prefer double entendres such as Blondie's "The Tide is High". Same meaning. Same message. Just a different way of saying it. Last week, the AOL homepage carousel featured a story about a dustup in the music industry between Moby and Kinks founders Ray and Dave Davies. In a recent interview, it appears that Moby takes umbrage with the lyrics to "Lola" and calls it transphobic and unevolved. It was 1970. Why the animosity? Dave Davies took to the music media to rebut in places such as Rolling Stone magazine. Now it's front page news. So much for current events.

"Lola" was controversial in 1970 and temporarily banned from the airwaves by the BBC in Great Britain, not for the trans references, but because of commercial product placement. The lyrics, "Well I'm not dumb but I can't understand why she walked like a woman and talked like a man", were deemed okay. Mentioning Coca-Cola was too much for the censors and it was taken off the air. Only after the Kinks changed Coca-Cola to cherry cola was the song able to reclaim air time. "Lola" was an international success, with a peak position of #9 on the U.S. singles charts soon after release. Although some British radio stations banned "Lola" for its lyrics, it remains one of the top songs in Rock and Roll history. I wonder how Moby holds up?

In 1973, Lou Reed had an AM radio hit with "Walk on the Wild Side". Off his second solo LP Transformer, it was a top 20 single of the year. Produced by David Bowie and Mick Ronson, it was groundbreaking and risqué, according to Wikipedia. I wouldn't know. It was just a catchy tune to me. The first stanza goes something like this: "Holly came from Miami, F.L.A., Hitchhiked her way across the USA. Plucked her eyebrows on the way, Shaved her leg and then he was a she." The song's name was derived from the 1962 movie Walk on the Wild Side, which itself was an adaptation of a Nelson Algren novel. Jane Fonda was one of the actors in her second starring role playing Kitty Twist. 

Renée Richards is the first transgender person I was aware of. Renée made headlines in the 1970s from being the first trans athlete competing on the professional women's tennis circuit after sex reassignment surgery. Before the transition from male to female, Richards was an incredible multisport athlete - in high school, in college, and in the Navy. I was in high school and didn't really know what to make of it all when Richards made the nightly news from taking her case to the New York State Supreme Court. Richards wanted to play tennis, professionally as a woman, and won. As a result, Richards played in both singles and doubles competition at the U.S. Open. She went on to a brief but successful professional tennis career. 

This past week, the International Olympic Committee banned transgender women athletes from women's events. “Eligibility for any female category event at the Olympic Games or any other IOC event, including individual and team sports, is now limited to biological females,” is the official statement from the IOC. The sex of the athlete will be determined by a mandatory gene test. I agree with this ruling. Once in a while, you get an outlier such as Olympic swimming phenom Katie Ledecky that can compete with men on a limited basis, but it's few and far between. It's not a level playing field. I don't like to side with the Trump agenda, but I do with this issue. In my opinion, trans people can serve in the military, can be a good parent, but can't play women's sports. It's not fair to women, who were born women. It's a stacked deck and just not fair.

I downloaded the MP3 file of "Lola" from iTunes. It's in mono sound. That's the way we used to listen to music on the AM radio. It has some sagacious lyrics: "Girls will be boys and boys will be girls, It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world, except for Lola.". Maybe Moby should give it another listen.