6/13/20

Book Review: Billion Dollar Fantasy

If you enjoy business stories about the digital age, then look no further than Albert Chen's Billion Dollar Fantasy. Not only is it a good first book, it's a good book, period. Ranks right up there with the more prolific writings of the current era, books such as Nick Bilton's Hatching Twitter, and Ben Mezrich's Bitcoin Billionaires. Subtitled "The High-Stakes Game Between Fanduel and Draftkings That Upended Sports in America", it's the story of aspiring unicorns duking it out for pole position in the burgeoning world of Fantasy Sports. Because of their global brands, sports fans and investors are probably already aware of the outcomes of the narrative: Draftkings (DKNG) is a recent IPO and Fanduel is controlled by ADR Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY). However, that doesn't take away from the sizzling story of how they got there. If you enjoy Fantasy Sports, investing, or tales of perseverance, this book is for you.

The account is told in chronological order, but also jumps back and forth to shed light on the history of Rotisserie baseball and fantasy football leagues. It's been said that you can't tell the players without a scorecard, and because there are so many major personalities in the book, the author includes a "Cast of Characters" before the preface. I found this beneficial because not only are the founders of both Fanduel and Draftkings highlighted, but some of the minor players which contributed to an interesting read - venture capitalists, professional gamblers and Fantasy Sports pioneers. Without it as a reference, I may have been confused as to who was who as the reporting progressed, except for the two CEO's.

Die-hard sports junkies have been playing handwritten Fantasy Sports games among small groups of friends for fifty plus years. As the Internet evolved, Fantasy Sports evolved, too. Electronic spreadsheets and personal blogs moved the betting pools to cyberspace; a cottage industry on the fringe. The multi-billion dollar industry as we know it today was launched from the loins of the demise of online poker. In the early 2,000's, the double-aughts, online poker was the craze where players could make life changing money overnight. Then the government shut down the industry. Uncle Sam deemed it a game of chance. However, as Chen writes: "Daily fantasy, like poker or blackjack, resided on a grey area on the spectrum: they were games of skill with an element of luck involved.". Fantasy Sports flew under the radar for years. Professional gamblers that made a living in online poker, made the switch to Fantasy Sports where unsuspecting minnows were ripe for the picking.

Although difficult to win consistently, the basics of Fantasy Sports are fairly easy: you pick a team, you make a bet, when your team wins, you get the purse. Between 2010 and 2012, aspiring entrepreneurs took notice, and professional websites for Fantasy Sports began dotting the electronic landscape. Beforehand, Fantasy Sports were occupied by media giants such as ESPN, CBS, and, Fox as tuck-ins to their digital empires. Mom and Pop bloggers working from home were on the other end of the scale. The middle ground was unexplored territory. When developers and avid Fantasy Sports fans discovered YouTube offered no original technology, just a website where you posted things, a land rush to be the next billionaire ensued.

Primarily, Web development is a young person's game and many wannabe Web kings emulated too cool for school Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook fame. It was also a time when the Great Recession of 2008-2009 became a distant memory and venture capital firms began to seed startups again. Now the game was who wants to be the next unicorn. If Zynga and Groupon can do it, why not me? Many Fantasy Sports sites were soon created, but it was DraftStreet and Fanduel that dominated the fledgling industry once the dust settled. Two lean startups before the lean startup rage in Silicon Valley. DraftStreet was the brainchild of Mark Nerenberg and his partner Brian Schwartz. Located in Great Britain, Fanduel was the innovation of Nigel and Lesley Eccles, a husband and wife team. However, that lead didn't last for long. There was a new kid in town, a johnny come lately called DraftKings.

Before DraftKings entered the picture, there was a piece of the pie for everybody. DraftKings, lead by CEO Jason Robins didn't see it that way - it was a winner-take-all game. They went hell bent for destruction. Robbins changed the rules of the game using a scorched earth policy and is described as crazy, reckless and ruthless. While competing executives utilized sensitivity training, Robbins went for the jugular. Draftkings was formed in 2012 by three Vistaprint middle managers including Robins, and by 2014, they were so aggressive that they devoured industry trailblazer DraftStreet. I'd rather be a hammer than a nail. That left two in the game with 90% of the market in tow - Fanduel and DraftKings. They were at the right place at the right time.

In 2015, both companies were worth a billion dollars. That watershed year also catapulted them to the forefront of American product branding as the two combined for $750 million in television advertising. Sandwiched between the GEICO and AT&T commercials, television viewers were carpet-bombed with 30 second spots hawking Fantasy Sports. If the two entities had combined resources, the excessive advertising spending could have been avoided, and the government scrutiny that came with unbridled promotions may have been minimized. A merger was bandied about, but they couldn't agree on who would run the new company. We're talking big egos here. Instead, they were stuck in the paradox known as the prisoner's dilemma where two individuals acting in their own self-interests do not produce an optimal outcome. The squeaky wheels got the grease, but the feds were hot on their tails with all the publicity.

I don't want to ruin the book for you, or make this a CliffsNotes review, so we'll cut to the chase. This is about the winner in today's investing and business environment. That winner is Jason Robbins and DraftKings. You may not like his tactics, but he followed the rules in the digital arena. They play hardball on Wall Street. To the victor goes the spoils. DraftKings went public in late April 2020 with Robbins at the helm. The stock has tripled in a few short months. Fanduel is controlled by an Irish bookmaker now. Both companies are battle tested, but DraftKings won the war. The story contains plenty of government intrigue, smoke filled barrooms off the Vegas Strip, and all you need to know about developing a startup. It's tale similar to Apple overtaking IBM or Facebook demolishing MySpace. If the movie rights haven't been picked up, somebody should get on it. I think you will really enjoy the ride. It's a page turner.

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